Why Modi Govt Reversed Stand on Caste Census Before Bihar Elections

In a significant political shift, the Modi government has signaled support for including caste-based data in the national census, marking a clear U-turn from its earlier stance. This decision comes at a crucial juncture — just months before the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections — and is seen as a tactical move to outmaneuver the opposition, particularly in the caste-conscious political landscape of Bihar.

This article examines the reasons behind the government’s sudden policy change, its implications for the opposition, and how it may reshape the electoral battlefield in the Hindi heartland.

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📌 Background: The Long-Debated Demand for a Caste Census

India’s last full-fledged caste census was conducted in 1931. Since then, despite major changes in India’s socio-political structure, no updated data has been made available about the caste composition of the population. OBCs (Other Backward Classes), in particular, have been at the center of this demand, claiming that without accurate data, policymaking and affirmative action remain imbalanced.

While the UPA government conducted a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) in 2011, its caste-related findings were never officially released due to questions about accuracy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long maintained that such data could lead to divisiveness and administrative complications.

However, the narrative began to shift recently, especially after Bihar conducted its own caste survey in 2023, revealing startling demographics that challenged long-held assumptions.

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🔄 The U-Turn: From Reluctance to Acceptance

The central government’s change of heart is evident in its recent statement to the Supreme Court, where it confirmed that the upcoming 2025 national census will include caste data. This move is being viewed as a strategic concession to demands made not only by the opposition but also by allies and regional BJP leaders.

“This is not a decision made in isolation; it’s a response to the political reality on the ground, especially with elections approaching in Bihar,” said political analyst Sanjay Kumar.

Delhi Minister Saurabh Bharadwaj of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) pointed out that the decision was taken under pressure:

“The BJP has taken a U-turn on caste census due to the pressure of elections and people” (NDTV report).

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🗳️ Bihar’s Caste Survey: The Turning Point

The Bihar government’s caste survey released in October 2023 showed that OBCs and EBCs comprise more than 63% of the population. Here’s a brief breakdown:

• EBCs: 36%
• OBCs: 27%
• SC/STs: Around 21%
• Upper castes: Less than 16%

These figures reveal that the majority of Bihar’s population falls under backward or marginalized categories. This data directly contradicted BJP’s traditional core support base and prompted a recalibration.

It’s also no coincidence that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who conducted the caste survey, has been actively demanding that the central government conduct a nationwide caste census.

For deeper insight, refer to ThePrint’s analysis on the BJP’s strategic crossroads after Bihar’s caste data release.

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🎯 Why This Move Targets the Opposition

1. Blunting the Mandal Narrative

The Congress and RJD have pushed hard for caste enumeration, arguing it is necessary for “real social justice.” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi launched the slogan “Jitni Abadi Utna Haq” (Rights proportional to population), aimed at increasing reservations based on actual caste numbers.

By conducting the caste census, the BJP seeks to undercut this narrative and portray itself as a party that delivers on demands rather than just debating them.

“The BJP wants to appear progressive and responsive while robbing the opposition of its key election plank,” says social scientist Prof. Anand Teltumbde.

2. Reaching Out to OBC and EBC Voters

Historically, OBC voters were split between BJP, JD(U), and RJD. With caste census data now out in the open, all parties will likely intensify their efforts to woo this demographic.

By backing the caste census, the BJP aims to:

• Counter RJD’s Yadav-Muslim base
• Attract non-Yadav OBCs
• Break traditional EBC alliances with Nitish Kumar

This shift could fragment the opposition’s caste coalition — a significant advantage in a tight election.

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🧩 Internal Party Contradictions

Interestingly, the BJP’s state and central units were not on the same page until recently. In 2022, Bihar BJP leaders supported the state’s caste survey while the Centre opposed it.

This disconnect between regional and national leadership added confusion but now seems to have been reconciled in favor of electoral pragmatism.

A similar shift can be seen in Maharashtra, where BJP has begun supporting the Maratha reservation demand — another caste-sensitive issue.

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📉 Opposition’s Dilemma: Advantage Diluted?

The caste census was a signature issue of opposition parties like the RJD, Congress, and Samajwadi Party. With the Modi government now backing the cause, they risk losing exclusive ownership of the issue.

However, critics argue the BJP’s support may be superficial, meant only for election optics. The implementation and use of caste data for welfare schemes will be the real test.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has already questioned the sincerity of the move:

“Modi ji should release the 2011 caste census data first. This is just election-time gimmickry.”

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🌐 Broader National Impact

This shift is not just about Bihar. Similar caste politics are prominent in:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh
• Rajasthan

If the BJP fully embraces caste-based data for policymaking, it may signal a new Mandal 2.0 phase, aligning backward caste aspirations with Hindutva — a complex, delicate balancing act.

Further reading on caste and electoral strategy can be found in The Guardian’s report on Rahul Gandhi’s outreach to lower castes.

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🧮 What Happens Next?

• Census Timeline: The caste census is expected to be rolled out with the national census in 2025.
• Policy Outcomes: Political parties may use the data to demand proportional reservations.
• Social Reactions: There is a risk of deepening caste polarization unless handled transparently and responsibly.

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🧠 Conclusion: Tactical or Transformational?

The Modi government’s U-turn on the caste census is both a tactical masterstroke and a high-stakes gamble. It opens the door to a radically altered political landscape where data-backed social justice could redefine electoral arithmetic.

Whether this will lead to real empowerment for marginalized communities or simply serve as a poll tactic remains to be seen.

One thing is clear — caste politics is no longer the exclusive territory of regional players. The BJP has fully stepped into the Mandal-era ring, with the 2025 Bihar elections as its proving ground.

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